MarketFN.com Trading And Investing Articles
Losers
Many of the comments on the blog last week suggested that Mike may have written because he had been burned by other services and that it is very difficult to know what services are authored or edited by someone who actually does trade their own money. I believe that is a very valid consideration.
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All About Honesty
This week I received the following comment on the blog:
"Bill, Isn't the truth that if you didn't have this column and the other service conduits you sell to the readers you email to, you would starve to death? Not totally trying to be mean, but let's have some honesty here.
Mike". I am absolutely irate. This comment came from someone who does not know me and has no idea how I make my money.
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Expectations
Over the years of trading, training, and coaching I have had the pleasure (mostly) of meeting and working with quite a large number of traders and I am always interested in what results they expect in their own trading. Sadly, most have not even come close to realizing their own expectations.
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Gone Fishin'
We are well into summer and Labor Day, like it or not, is fast approaching. August can be a particularly uncertain time in the markets. Many of the big players are playing or, perhaps, partying in the Hamptons or the south of France or anywhere but on the sidewalks of New York. Actually, it's not just the super heavyweights who are away. Many retail traders who still have jobs, income, and/or money are also enjoying their summer vacations in August.
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Will Your Trading Strategies Change in 2011?
Taxes, taxes, taxes. While I rarely write about taxes in these articles because I believe all traders should work with a tax professional in coming to an understanding of tax consequences of various strategies I do understand that taxes are important to all of us.
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Learning to Trade
Last weekend a new trader wrote on the blog asking how much time he needs to dedicate to learning the components of trading. It seemed to me that he was gently expressing a little frustration over what seems to be the daunting amount of knowledge needed. Often in such circumstances (though not apparent in the blogger's contribution) there is an element of impatience and desire to move forward and make money. The problem, of course, is that jumping in also exposes the traders to the quite real risk of losing money.
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The Flow of Trading
Over the many years I have been trading, teaching, and coaching traders I have observed that many, at least initially, have what I consider to be an unrealistic expectation of how successful trading flows. They seem to expect each trade to realize great gains and are disappointed if the gain is not great or if a loss is suffered. At times that disappointment results in the trader withdrawing from the activity because he doesn't think it can work for him or because he didn't make money fast enough. One of the problems may be that he has yet to understand the flow of trading.
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The Pace of Trading
When I first began trading, I got my quotes from the newspaper or by a call to a broker. I wished (along with most other traders at the time) that I could get my quotes faster and more efficiently. Certainly the faster and more efficiently I could get quotes, the better I would trade. It wasn't long before you could get 20 minute delayed quotes over a land line and that was both revelation and a technical revolution. If only I could get real time I often wished and, well you know, now we have it.
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Paralysis
As I was thinking about the subject for this weekend's article I found myself a bit mentally mired searching for a topic. That happens every once in a while. I find that when I try to think of a topic rather than just letting it pop into my head from a reader's comment or something I may see or read I have a tough time coming up with something new or at least with some new twist. There is almost a little mental paralysis hindering the quest.
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Measuring Trading Success
How do you measure your trading success? That almost sounds like a stupid question, doesn't it? Obviously, overall we measure it by how much we've made or lost. However, we might do well to recognize other measures as we go along.
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On the Fundamental Side
It is probably clear to regular readers of these articles that I consider myself to be a technical rather than a fundamental trader. My basic philosophy for directional trading that has worked well for me over the past decade plus has little to do with fundamentals of a company.
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The Need for Technicals in Trading
Several years ago I had a conversation with a private banker about trading. I had been doing pretty well and mentioned that my trading was based on technicals (chart formations). The banker recoiled and said: "You know you can't time the markets or a stock. You need to trade by fundamentals."
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What Makes a Good Stock?
I suppose there is a simple answer to the question: "What makes a
good stock?" A good stock is one that enables us to make a profit. By
that definition, a stock whose price is dropping dramatically can be a
good stock for us if we have shorted it or bought puts on it or in some
fashion have set up a trade that is designed to make money when the
stock price falls.
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Gaining Financially
I'm guessing it is safe to say that most of the readers are interested in obtaining added financial gains. The question then becomes how do we go about achieving that status. I clearly remember the powerful insight Robert Kiyosaki and Sharon Lechter's book, "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" provided me.
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Safety
In last weekend's article, I suggested that a potential strategy
might be to capture 8% or 10% income and that a given investor might
be willing to exchange that regular income for potential capital
appreciation and that as long as he was getting his 8% or 10% it might
not matter what gyrations the underlying investment might undergo.
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PANIC!!!
Well, recent market actions have shown us some of the emotion
I've discussed in recent articles. The Dow fell almost 1000 points in
a short time during a day only to regain 650 of those points in short
order the same day a week ago.
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Emotional Issues
Nearly everyone who has read anything about trading has been exposed to the notion that the markets operate on fear and greed. Consciously we know we can make money and we know we can lose money when we trade and we have an emotional attachment to the money.
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How to Become a Better Trader
That is the real question for all of us, isn't it? How can I
become a better trader? Over my years of dealing with a few successful
traders and a whole lot of wannabe successful traders I have observed
one very significant difference.
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Some Thoughts on Stops
Recently a subscriber wrote on the blog asking how to avoid getting
whipsawed out on stops when there are traders out there who hunt for
clusters of stops so they can attempt to profit by triggering the stop
and then enjoying a run-up. Assuming there are such traders (as I do)
that can be a difficult problem.
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Indecision and Vacillation
I recently had an experience with a prospective coaching student
unlike any I've had before that highlights a personality trait that I
believe can be extremely detrimental to trading.
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A Trader's Considerations
Over the last few weeks I've been writing about elements I believe
a trader needs to consider and, perhaps, include in a trading business
plan. Those elements of obtaining knowledge, exercising discipline,
being patient, managing money, having an exit strategy before entering a
trade, and identifying reward to risk potential are, to my mind,
extremely important in attempting to create a successful trading
business.
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Some Necessities of Successful Trading
In the last couple of articles, I've been writing about some of
the things that I believe are critical elements to good trading. In this article, I am going to discuss
a triumvirate of elements that I believe are also extremely important
in attempting to achieve success in trading.
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Some General Criteria to Improve Trading
Last weekend I suggested you set out and prioritize elements or
criteria that you believe are most critical to trading success. I hope that you found the exercise valuable and that it helped
focus your attention on doing things that are important and avoiding
things that may be less than productive.
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Some Keys to Trading Success
Before reading any further, would you be willing to ask yourself
what you could consider doing that might improve your trading? What
elements would you imagine are most likely to lead to success or
greater success?
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Stop Loss and Stop Limit Orders
In recent weeks, I have written about risk and included concepts
like protective puts and stop loss orders as ways a trader might
endeavor to cut losses in the event a position moves against her. The
articles sparked a question from a subscriber who wanted to know about
the difference between stop loss and stop limit orders and how the two
might be used by a trader.
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Deciding Upon Protection
In the last couple of articles, I wrote a little about issues of
risk. Risk seems to be one of those things that too many traders
consider only after they find themselves facing already existing
losses. Too often, that seems to be the same time that greed may
dissipate and fear increases, sometimes to the point of near
paralysis.
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Thinking About Risk
In the article last weekend, I wrote a little about
understanding risk and that got me to thinking how important risk
really is to the trader. I consider it to be so important that I
devoted much of my first book, "Trade Your Way to Wealth," to
understanding risk and showing various ways in which a trader might
try to reduce and manage risk. Risk, of course, is everywhere and it
is particularly significant in trading the markets.
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Importance of Risk
Over the last couple of weekends, I wrote about prioritizing
trading skills and a subscriber emailed to emphasize the issue of
risk. Probably nothing is more important than the concept of and
issues surrounding risk. In fact, I wrote "Trade Your Way to Wealth"
with the specific purpose of addressing risk awareness and risk
management.
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Prioritizing Trading Skills
Last weekend I wrote about taking an inventory of our trading
skills and my belief that how we prioritize them can make a
substantial difference in our trading results. The list I included
was as follows:
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What's Your Trading Focus?
Every once in a while it's probably not a bad idea to take
inventory of our trading related skills. As I began to do so for
myself I also recalled inventories with which various coaching
students came to me and inventories of students at seminars. I am
convinced that what we choose as our focus or focuses in trading can
make or break us.
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Why a Limit Order?
Whether knowingly or not, many retail traders enter market
orders to buy stock and that can sometimes be quite dangerous. A
market order to buy simply instructs the broker to buy shares at
whatever the market price may be at the time the order is filled.
Ordinarily, there may be no problem, but every once in a while, there
could be.
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Trading as Life
Recently, I received what I considered to be a very insightful
email. I found it so interesting for reasons I'll discuss at the end
of the article that I asked the author's permission to share it with
you. In the interests of space, I have editorially deleted some small
surplusage. Here is what she wrote:
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A Secret about Successful Trading
Over the years, I have observed a whole lot of traders looking
for the secret that, once revealed, will lead to riches. The search
often seems to be directed to a way to find the perfect candidate or a
"can't miss" strategy known only to some chosen few.
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Past and Future
Every once in a while, I wonder who is included in the "they" of
the "they say" school of reinforcing a statement. You know, "they say"
the market has been due for a rectracement. Or "they say" that 2010 is
going to be a good year for the market. In fact, they say the past is
destined to repeat itself.
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Food for Thought from the Sports World
Those of us who have grown up and lived in America have been
exposed to many wonderful things. Among them, in my opinion, has been
the opportunity to participate in and watch sports. Many valuable
lessons have been learned and taught on baseball diamonds, football
fields, basketball courts, and boxing rings. Though much of what we
have learned may be transferable to our trading, perhaps,
unfortunately, some of those lessons as embodied in various cliches
are counter-productive.
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A Few Random Thoughts About Trading
At times, it is a struggle to come up with a new and specific
subject for an article every week. As I was thinking about what I
should write this weekend, it occurred to me that trading is a part of
life and in life we see ourselves do many things without a conscious
intention.
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Basics
As far as I am concerned, successful trading can be very simple,
but, by that, I don't mean to suggest that it is easy. I am
constantly amazed by the trading talks I've heard and the concepts
avowed that involve endless complexities.
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What You Want from Your Trading
Before I launch into the subject of this weekend's article, I
hope all of you had a fantastic Thanksgiving. Traditionally, the
holiday is a time to give thanks for what we have and to reflect about
our lives. In that spirit of reflection, I thought it might be a good
idea to reflect on what we want from our trading.
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Changes Over the Last Several Years
Option traders are about to see an important and long overdue
change. Option symbols are finally changing so that it will be easier
for traders to identify the option they are seeking or trading. At
the initiative of the Options Clearing Corporation option symbols will
become much more straightforward and easy to understand. Knowing these changes in option symbols were about to be
implemented got me to thinking about other changes in trading over my
lifetime and particularly in just over the decade in which I have been
trading for a living.
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What's Your Trading Personality?
One of the important considerations for any of us is to arrive
at an understanding of our own trading personality. As I have emphasized
so many times both in these articles and in "Trade Your Way to Wealth," a critical need is a trading business plan and as or even
before such a plan is developed, the trader would be well advised to
do a little self-analysis to determine his or her trading personality
characteristics.
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Costs of Trading
Last weekend I wrote an article about trader education and how
important I considered it to be. Obviously, as with any education,
there are costs to be incurred. As I noted in "Smart Investors Money Machine" education is becoming increasingly expensive. One
kindergarten I checked out, for example, charges $3,500 a semester.
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Education
I was talking with an investor the other day and he mentioned how
odd it is that so many people come to trading with no education or
training and without knowledge specific to trading yet expect to do
well.
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The Rewards of Patience
One of the more common problems I see with traders at all levels
is impatience. It can be an insidious problem and is fueled by both
fear and greed. Traders are afraid that they will miss a good one if
they don't have a position going at all times and that means that our
greedy side may miss out on a good move.
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What Stock to Buy?
In the article last weekend, I discussed some considerations
traders may want to ponder when deciding upon a vehicle to trade. In this article, I am going to focus on some ideas related
to choosing individual stocks to trade.
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What Should I Trade?
The question I am most frequently asked is: how do I find
candidates to trade? There are numerous considerations that can be
taken into account, but as I am constantly writing and preaching, the
first consideration is the trader's individual plan and trading
personality.
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Quick Fixes
Many traders lose. That is no secret. The important question is
why so few actually succeed. I have had quite a bit of experience
teaching trading classes and working with individual coaching students
over the years and I thought it might be useful to discuss some of the
observations I have made, particularly in the coaching arena.
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What's Your Perspective?
I've been writing these articles for quite a long time, now (maybe
too long) and I have received many, many comments. Some have been very
thoughtful, others very kind, and some just plain annoying, but, in
retrospect, they have taught me a lot about the widely varied
perspectives of the readers.
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Sine Metu
As many of you may know, I just had the privilege of traveling
through Ireland, an absolutely beautiful country. During our stay, we
took the opportunity to tour the Jameson Irish Whiskey Distillery. In
addition to learning how Irish whiskey is distilled, we learned how Mr.
Jameson went to riches, then to rags as a result of world events totally
beyond his control, but recovered to regain his riches.
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Part III - The Basics: Some Ways to Let Profits Run
This article is the last in the current series dealing with the
basics of cutting losses and letting profits run. Last week I focused on
various ways to cut losses. Each is relatively simple but all require
that the trader follow the discipline and be absolutely faithful to his
plan.
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Part II - The Basics: Some Ways to Cut Losses
Last weekend I began a three part series of articles dealing with
cutting losses and letting profits run. In the first part, I discussed
the advisability of the process and suggested the first two steps that
need to be accomplished. This week, my focus will be on relatively precise ways
traders and investors might consider in establishing a plan whereby they
can cut losses.
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Part I - The Basics of Profitable Trading
Perhaps the most basic concepts necessary to achieve profitable
trading are to cut losses and let profits run. The idea is obvious and
simple on its face, but it seems that many traders have no idea how to
accomplish either objective.
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Random Thoughts on Trading
The other day it occurred to me how much I really like trading. It
has given me a quality of life I never dreamed I would enjoy. In my
former lives I practiced law for many years and then ran a photo
processing business and portrait studio.
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Complexity
One observation I have made over my years of trading, coaching, and
conducting seminars is that there seems to be a conception among many
retail traders that trading and trading plans need to be complex. I
couldn't disagree more.
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Some Market Action Observations
One of the things I always emphasize when I start working with a
coaching student is that the markets tend to behave much more in
response to the psychological than to the logical, particularly in the
short to mid-term.
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Some Characteristics of Successful Traders
My observations and interactions with various traders, seminar
attendees, and coaching students has led me to conclude that there
definitely are certain characteristics shared by successful traders that
are not shared by the unsuccessful, at least in their trading activities.
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Picking Strategies
In both my books, "Trade Your Way to Wealth" and "Smart Investors Money Machine", I have emphasized what I consider to be the importance
of having a business and trading plan. In "Trade Your Way to Wealth" I cover
how to go about creating such a plan and discuss elements that I believe
are important to include in your own personal plan.
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Risks of Buy and Hold
In the article last weekend, I discussed the concept of trying to
catch falling knives and, quite predictably, I received some comments
from readers justifying their own actions in buying falling stocks.
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Catching Falling Knives
During the past week, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite each
broke down below the neckline of head and shoulders chart formations.
Such a break is generally thought to be a fairly strong bearish signal,
particularly when combined with weak fundamentals such as in the overall
economy including things like high unemployment and low consumer
sentiment.
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Qualities of Success
I recently read a biography of Warren Buffet and it reinforced a
thought that people who achieve the highest levels of success in their
chosen fields have several important attributes in common.
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This Half Year
As far as I am concerned, it is definitely true that the older you
get the faster time seems to pass. I just looked at the calendar and
suddenly realized that 2009 is almost half gone. That observation gave
me pause to look back on the year so far. It has been quite a year for
trading.
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Picking A Strategy
I recently wrote a little about picking a stock and mentioned a few
of the myriad ways in which an investor or trader might go about
selecting a candidate. In my own trading life, as I review stocks, I
find that the process becomes much more one of elimination than
selection.
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Selecting a Stock
The most common question I am asked about trading is how I select what stock to trade. There are probably as many ways to select a stock as there are people searching for candidates.
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A Couple of Answers
This weekend I am going to discuss a couple of topics. The first
deals with some trading issues raised by an email from a subscriber to
one of the alerts and the second with a suggestion by a blog contributor
that I provide some information about the differences between my two
books, "Trade Your Way to Wealth" and "Smart Investors Money Machine".
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What Do We Really Want?
I remember my start in trading more than a decade ago. It began
with a book I read that just hooked me. It talked about some amazing
returns and exposed me to strategies that previously had been unknown to
me; strategies like writing covered calls and buying LEAPS calls and
selling naked puts.
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Reaction and Over-reaction
One seeming constant I have observed over my more than a decade
of trading for my living is how the markets tend to react and often
over-react to various events and news. Have you noticed, for example,
how often a stock price will dip following an earnings announcement
even when the announcement is good?
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Motivation
In recent articles, I have touched upon issues relating to the
idea of knowing oneself as a trader; the necessity of careful
self-analysis. One important area I believe many traders gloss over is
the concept of motivation.
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How We Learn
After last weekend's article, a subscriber wrote an important and
thought provoking note on the blog. He indicated that he was unable to
learn very well by reading books or watching DVDs and believed the only
way he could learn to trade was by actually doing it.
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What Are You Willing to Do to Become a Successful Trader?
Over the last couple of weeks, I have written about taking
personal inventory and making the evaluations necessary to choose
where you want to be as a trader. In this article, I would like to
invite your attention to what you may or may not be willing to do to
become a successful trader.
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Where Would You Like Your Trading to Go?
There are probably as many answers to the question "where would
you like your trading to go" as there are people answering the
question. Certainly everyone would like to see their trading be
profitable and most, at least, would like their trading to be safe.
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What Have You Been Doing?
This article is the first in a series of three where I will
raise the questions of where have you been with your trading, where
would you like to be, and what are you willing to do to become a
better trader.
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An Impediment to Profitable Trading
When we trade the markets, we have many hurdles to overcome if
we are ultimately to be successful. Underlying all trades, for
example, is the necessity to have knowledge. We need to know what we
are doing and we need to know the specific risk(s) we are assuming. We
need to understand the strategy we are employing and we should have an
exit strategy.
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How Can a Trader Make Market Cliches Work?
One of the many enjoyable things for me in learning about and
trading the markets is the variety of colorful cliches that point out
some little piece of wisdom (mostly) or other. "You can't go broke
makin' a profit," for example, can remind us that it may be a better
idea to take profits at some time before they turn into losses.
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The Issue of Safety
Last weekend I wrote a little about what I consider to be the
importance of establishing streams of income. I included the
statement: "I believe that creation of diverse streams of income can
be a critical element in assuring financial comfort." One anonymous
blogger apparently mentally added the word "safe" to my statement when
he (or she?) wrote:
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Investment Philosophies
The classic investment philosophy taught to preceding
generations has been "buy and hold." There is little question that
"buy and hold" worked well over long periods of time and those who
bought stocks and held them for 20, 30, or 40 years often had a decent
gain, even after inflation.
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Catching a Falling Knife?
Trying to pick a bottom on a falling stock or index can be a
very difficult proposition and, in the trading business, has been
likened to trying to catch a falling knife.
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What Does It Look Like
Perhaps the second most frequent question I am asked (right
after how do I find a stock) is what do I think the market is going to
do. When I answer, I want to avoid rudeness yet the simple fact is
that whatever I may think the market is going to do is completely
irrelevant at least in the sense that the market simply does not care
what I think.
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Priorities in Trading
In the years that I have been trading, teaching trading, and
writing about trading, probably the question I am most frequently
asked is how do I find what stock to trade. While that obviously can
be quite important, there are a number of other factors that, to my
mind, are at least as important.
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How Long Will My Trade Be?
Recently, a subscriber to the Option Trader service wrote to ask
why I bought LEAPS (that expire a year to three years out) when I only
planned to be in a trade from 1 to 3 months. That is definitely a
great question that raises what I consider to be some very important
issues about all trading, whether stock or options.
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Keeping Records
One often neglected part of trading is record keeping. Active
traders probably know that the IRS requires us to file a Schedule D-1
with our tax returns detailing both short term and long term capital
gains and losses and including the date acquired, the date sold, the
cost or other basis, the sales price and the gain or loss.
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Avoiding Impulse Trades
Last weekend, the Newsletter article began with several questions. I then went on to explain how important I believe it is to make
decisions and how difficult it is for so many to make those decisions
themselves. Somehow, at least one subscriber interpreted the article
to suggest that I was advocating making trades on impulse.
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Decision Making
When we trade we need to make many decisions. What stock will I
choose? What strategy will I use? When will I enter? Am I bullish or
bearish? What is my exit strategy? Will I set a stop to buy? Will I
set a stop loss once I have entered? What reward to risk do I seek to
attain with the trade? Will I bother to create a trading plan? These
are just a few of the decisions we must make as traders.
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Exuberance, Rational and Irrational
Many of us who have been around and trading for a while will
remember former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's warning about irrational
exuberance back in the time of the tech bubble. His warning proved to
be prophetic in those circumstances, and I would suggest that
irrational exuberance is something against which all traders should
guard.
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Broadening Horizons
Experience has shown that many subscribers are like most retail
traders in that their trading is limited to buying stock and hoping it
will go up in price. As most regular readers know and as anyone who
has read "Trade Your Way to Wealth" is aware, I am a believer in
playing the direction the market is moving.
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Welcome 2009
I hate to see any year end because every one has provided
wonderful experiences and pleasant memories. 2008 was no exception in
those categories, but most of us are glad it is over from a market
perspective, at least.
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Start from the Beginning
Over the past several months the markets have shown
extraordinary volatility and we have been witnessing a serious bear
market. During that time I have spoken to many traders and investors
who have accumulated large losses.
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Aggressive or Conservative
Last weekend a couple of subscribers offered differing points of
view regarding conservatism in trading. One, who comments with some
regularity suggested that my investing approach was too conservative
and defensive for his blood and mentioned that it was unlikely that I
had made my money placing collars. Another subscriber and long time
investor wrote and took the position that defense and conservatism is
an important ingredient in successful investing.
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More on Being Careful About to Whom You Listen
Last weekend an anonymous subscriber wrote a caution on the blog
in which he noted: "Not to be a cinic [sic], rather a realist, please
recognize these blogs are solely published to drum up business for
their paid advisory trading subscriptions, books, seminars or a
variety or of other sales pitches.
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Selling Short
In the past couple of weeks, some subscribers have written and
asked about shorting stock. The markets are currently dealing with
levels of support that go back to 2003 and 2004 and we don't yet know
whether we are going to see another downward move or whether the
bottom has been hit.
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Buy and Hold Revisited
Around this time last year, I wrote an article in which I warned
of the dangers of buy and hold investing. One critical response
accused me of "shucking and jiving" and asked for academic
publications supporting the value of trading options.
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Protecting Positions
Last weekend I wrote about the use of stops in general and in
high volatility markets such as those we are currently facing. A
reader pointed out that I didn't know what I was talking about since
it was his view that stops don't work in high volatility markets and
the only thing worthwhile to protect positions was the protective put.
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Some Considerations for Setting Stops in High Volatility Markets
It is certainly no secret that the recent past has demonstrated a
period of historically high volatility in the markets. One of my very
successful coaching students from this past year wrote last weekend and
suggested that I write an article dealing with setting stops in this
high volatility environment.
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Predictions
After stirring up the hornet's nest last weekend, I'm returning to
some considerations for traders. Last weekend, I had the privilege to
speak at the Trader's Library event in Chicago and was humbled to be in
the company of legends like Dick Arms (creator of the Arms Index) who
was inducted into the Trader's Hall of Fame and Charlie Kirkpatrick, a
two time winner of the Charles Dow award.
. . . more . . .
The Definition of Insanity
I just have to laugh. Now I remember why I stopped doing seminars
and limited my teaching to speaking engagements and private coaching.
Last weekend, I included a section in the Newsletter article asking if
folks might be interested in a seminar in Scottsdale late this coming
winter.
. . . more . . .
Euphoria and Despair
The markets have certainly been on a wild ride this year. The Dow
Industrials, for example, dropped 5250 points from the intra-day high in
May to the intra-day low on October 10th. The Nasdaq Composite and the
S&P 500 suffered similarly. Many traders and the investing public have
taken a very disheartening ride.
. . . more . . .
The Trouble with Calling a Bottom
Recently, I've heard a lot of chatter from various pundits about
whether they are "calling a bottom" or not. Not surprisingly, some are
saying we are at or near the bottom while others proclaim that we still
have a ways to go. Who's right? Who knows?
. . . more . . .
Volatility
What a wild market we've seen. Volatilities reached levels not seen
for 5 or 6 years. The Dow was down almost 800 one day and up nearly 500
by the close of the following day. These have been hard, fast swings
and they can be very difficult to trade. Straight directional trades
have been dangerous. What can a trader do in circumstances like these
to protect himself or herself?
. . . more . . .
The Problem with Market Commentaries
A recent note from a subscriber alerted me to discuss what I am
trying to do with the Newsletter articles and why I am doing it. The
subscriber chastised me for failing to comment on the financial meltdown
in last weekend's article and suggested that I did not write about those
developments as every other Newsletter writer to whom he subscribed
did.
. . . more . . .
Pursuing a Trading Education
As many readers are probably aware, I am a great believer in
advancing my trading knowledge and advocate ongoing trading education
for anyone who wants to become and remain a successful trader. During
the last week, I had a short dialog with a subscriber on the blog who
adamantly takes the position that he is going to learn for himself.
Good for him!
. . . more . . .
A Trading Anecdote
As you read this, I am sitting on a lanai in Kauai overlooking
magnificent Hanalei Bay. I'm not trying to make anyone envious, I only
want to point out the great surroundings I am enjoying because I
probably couldn't be doing what I am doing now unless I was in the
trading business.
. . . more . . .
Treating Trading as a Business
How do you think of your trading and investing? Is it a hobby? Is
it gambling? Is it something you do when Uncle Fred gives you a tip or
when you see something exciting about a company on television? Have you
devoted time to learning strategies or do you just buy a stock when you
"think" or "feel" it is going to go up?
. . . more . . .
Times of the Year
As we reach Labor Day and the end of the summer vacation season, it
occurred to me that it might be an appropriate time to examine some of
the influences of the calendar on stock and option trading. While it
may be surprising to some, time of year can actually have an influence
on market behavior.
. . . more . . .
Searching for the Key
Over the course of my trading career I have met a lot of people who
were trading or trying to trade. I met them at seminars I took, in
trading groups, at seminars I gave, and at events where I have spoken.
If we are to believe the statistics, most of them were doomed to fail.
. . . more . . .
The Insidious Nature of Greed
Most of us are probably aware that emotions can be the downfall of
traders. The markets undoubtedly react to fear and greed. All we need do
is recall the tech bubble of the late 1990's when traders were paying
exorbitant prices for stocks of companies that had no earnings, and in
some cases, barely a business plan. Greed fueled the fire and people
bought positions with no thought that things might turn south.
. . . more . . .
Standing Aside is a Strategy
Over the past several months, I have received a number of emails
and heard from many traders how hard they consider the markets have been
to trade. In talking to others, I have heard many sad tales about
significant losses.
. . . more . . .
Play the Market at Hand
In recent weeks, I have received a number of emails from traders
who have been suffering a high percentage of losses in their accounts
and who wonder what they are doing wrong. In many cases the answer is
that they are playing a market that does not exist right now.
. . . more . . .
Pitfalls Encountered with Emotional Trades
At one time or another, most traders, including myself, have traded by emotion. In coaching sessions and in conversation with many traders over the years, I have seen countless examples of emotional trades and emotional trading. There has been one constant in those observations and it is that those who continue to trade with emotion without some discipline fail.
. . . more . . .
The Anger Amazes Me, But Proves the Point
Last weekend I wrote a little article suggesting that perception,
not necessarily actuality, moves the markets. In the article I quoted
-- yes, quoted, not made up or voiced my opinion -- some positive facts
about the economy taken from front page articles in Investors Business
Daily.
. . . more . . .
Perceptions
Suppose you were watching the TV news last week and learned that Personal income jumped 1.9% last month; Disposable income was up 5.7%, the sharpest gain in 33 years; in the last 20 years, the average lifespan has increased by 3
full years.
. . . more . . .
How Many Positions to Hold
Last weekend, in response to a subscriber's question, I discussed
the issue of how much money a trader needs in a trading account. As is
often the case with trading, the answer is "it depends" on the
individual and his or her goals, needs, risk tolerance, time available
to trade, and so on. That same subscriber had also asked how many
positions to hold in order to have a good mix of issues. Again, the
answer is completely dependent upon the individual.
. . . more . . .
Some Thought Provoking Questions
After the article in the last Newsletter, I received some
interesting questions on the blog. One full time trader asked a couple
of questions I frequently hear from both full time and part time
traders. The first question is how much money does a full time trader
need to trade? I should add that this question is also an important one
for part time traders as well.
. . . more . . .
Managing Trading Account Money
A couple of weeks ago, a subscriber wrote asking how someone who
trades for a living manages money in their trading account. The
subscriber was interested in whether profits are plowed back into the
account or taken out or exactly how the money is managed.
. . . more . . .
Identifying the Emotion in Trading
Most of us have learned that emotions can be a serious enemy of
successful trading. Unfortunately, all too often, trades are entered
and exited solely because of emotion. Thoughts like "if I buy XYZ, I'll
make a bundle," or "XYZ went down 50 cents today, I better get out" are
examples of entering for greed and exiting for fear without any
pre-planning or underlying discipline.
. . . more . . .
A Little More on "Entitlements"
I think I received more comments last week about the Social
Security issue than on any other article I have ever written for the
Newsletter. As might have been predicted, the commentaries ran a very
wide gamut.
. . . more . . .
Social Security - Where from Here?
Among my random thoughts last weekend I mentioned Social Security
and was not surprised to receive a couple of comments on the subject. I
guess I was surprised that I didn't get more comments. All of us are in
one category or another -- we are either receiving the 'benefits' or we
are paying for them.
. . . more . . .
Random Thoughts for Traders on a Holiday Weekend
As an advocate of discipline in trading, I am a firm believer in
having a precise exit strategy in place before I ever enter a trade. I
try to do that in my own trading and believe it is important to actually
exit according to that plan rather than relying on that little voice in
my head that tells me: "Don't worry, hang in there, it'll come back."
One of my random thoughts this weekend is whether everyone has that
little voice.
. . . more . . .
Certainty
Ever since I began trading I have encountered many statements
seemingly made with great certainty. I have heard people say that a
specific stock price is going to jump up on the earnings announcement.
It didn't.
. . . more . . .
Do Traders Really Die Broke?
Last week, in response to my invitation to submit market
sayings, one anonymous commentator who identified himself as one who
had spent 16 years on the floor of the NYSE suggested a saying he
attributed to folks who worked there. The saying is: "Traders die
broke."
. . . more . . .
More Market Sayings
Last weekend I wrote about some market cliches so we could think
about their efficacy. While these sayings have become conventional
wisdom, the real question for us as traders and investors is are they
complete and do they work; do they produce the intended result?
. . . more . . .
Market Cliches
When I first was drawn to trading I was a little intimidated by
parts of the new language (e.g. diagonalized calendar spread or
strangles or going naked) and I was a little amused by some of the
cliches.
. . . more . . .
Trading Is About You
What strategies you select when trading the markets is entirely
up to you. In my view, you should choose strategies that fit your
needs, your risk tolerance, and your personality.
. . . more . . .
Thoughts About Seminars
In the article last weekend, I wrote about education with some
emphasis on coaching. I promised to write a little about seminars this
week, so here goes. First, let me say that I am a fan of seminars.
. . . more . . .
Planning Your Trading Education
I am absolutely convinced that one of the most important factors
in achieving success in trading is to have a trading business plan. I
am so convinced that I devoted a complete chapter in my book,
"Trade Your Way to Wealth," to the creation and content of a personalized
trading plan for traders and investors.
. . . more . . .
Finding a Stock
Perhaps the question I am asked most often is how do I find what
stock to trade. Quite honestly, I don't think that is the most
important question a successful trader can ask, but it is clearly one
that is on the minds of many retail traders.
. . . more . . .
Some Random Thoughts About Brokers and Trading Knowledge
Whenever I have written about brokers in the past, it seems to
have stirred a storm of emails relating either horror stories or
positive experiences with brokers. Like anything else, there are good
and bad and the key for us, as traders, is to figure out which is which.
. . . more . . .
Setting the Record Straight
There is no question in my mind that people who are serious
about their trading need to have accurate information. Without it, it
is even harder, if not impossible, to succeed in an already difficult
business.
. . . more . . .
Loss Aversion vs Risk Aversion
As almost every trader knows, cutting losses is a critically
important component of successful trading. The key, of course, is to
know how and when to cut those losses. Unfortunately, all too often,
emotions play a significant role in when we cut our losses.
. . . more . . .
Home Runs and Singles
Spring training has arrived for baseball players and that led me
to consider some of the analogies of trading to baseball. Over the
years, I have observed quite a number of traders who perceive
themselves as sluggers who are always looking for the home run in
their trading.
. . . more . . .
Passion for Trading
I am convinced that one of the elements of successful trading is
passion for the activity. I just got back from speaking at Traders
Expo in New York and realize that whenever I attend an event like that
I come back really pumped up about trading all over again.
. . . more . . .
Things That Are Important to Traders - Part II - Picking a Stock
In the article last weekend, I talked about understanding how
even a trade that loses can be a good trade. That was intended to
reinforce the concept that cutting losses can be critically important
to successful trading. This weekend, I want to discuss stock picking
a little.
. . . more . . .
Things That Are Important to Traders - Part I - Can a Good Trade Result in a Loss?
My guess is that most traders would say that making money is the
most important thing to them in their trading. Naturally, that is the
ultimate goal of all traders and investors, but there certainly are
many other things that are extremely important yet may be overlooked
in the quest for the ultimate goal.
. . . more . . .
Targets and Exits
I sometimes get emails from subscribers who want to know whether
I set targets on positions I enter and, if so, how I establish the
target. If the question means do I set a target that once hit will
result in my exiting the position, the answer is no.
. . . more . . .
Profits with No Risk, Low Risk, and Measured Risk Strategies
So far, January has been devastating to a lot of investors. So
many think that they can only make money when the market is going up.
Unfortunately, a high percentage of retail traders have no exit
strategy and are wed to the concept that the only way to successful
investing is buy and hold.
. . . more . . .
Dividend Capture
A subscriber recently wrote and suggested I include some
additional information on dividends, particularly as they may affect
stock price. Before reaching that point, a little review may be
helpful. Generally, there are four relatively important dates that
relate to dividends.
. . . more . . .
Thoughts On Technical Trading
I consider myself to be primarily a technical trader. By that I
mean I make my trading entry and exit decisions based on what I see on
price and volume charts and with the use of some favorite indicators.
I do not mean to suggest that I completely ignore fundamentals because
I don't.
. . . more . . .
2007 Review
First, thank you all for subscribing to the Newsletter. I hope
each of you and your families have a wonderful 2008. Now that 2007 has passed into history, it is time for me to
review my performance in my subscription service trades.
. . . more . . .
Certainty
The trouble with certainty in trading is that there isn't any. An
unanticipated piece of news can change the direction of a stock in a
flash and what looked like a sure thing wasn't. Markets can turn on
sudden political turmoil. The Fed Chairman can make a statement and
stocks turn on a dime. That is why even the greatest traders suffer
losses at times. There is no certainty in trading.
. . . more . . .
Traders Run the Gamut
One fact has been brought home time and again from the readers'
responses to Newsletter articles. There are lots of ways to achieve
positive results in trading.
. . . more . . .
Understanding Risk Can Improve Your Trading
After last weekend's article about day trading and the perils about
which the NASD warns prospective day traders, I received some
contributions to the blog from a couple of apparently successful day
traders. Their contributions demonstrate that some traders can and do
make money day trading. Does that mean we should ignore the NASD's
warnings?
. . . more . . .
Some Day Trading Issues
Last week a subscriber wrote and mentioned that he was getting
in and out of trades more quickly than he had in the past and had even
entered and exited the same position in the same day. That action
resulted in a warning from his broker about day trading.
. . . more . . .
Thinking About Taxes
Last weekend, a subscriber wrote and suggested I address record
keeping for tax preparation purposes. Clearly, taxes are an important
part of any trader's life so I'll offer some comments concerning
approaches to record keeping and tax preparation.
. . . more . . .
What About Paper Trading
I frequently do get very helpful suggestions
in emails and one I received was from a subscriber in the stock
brokerage industry who, among his many insightful comments, suggested
that he never understood why paper trading was so frequently
recommended because it is definitely different when real money is traded.
. . . more . . .
Lots of Ways to Skin a Cat
Almost every week I receive emails about the content of the
Newsletter article and most of the time they are pretty friendly even
when they don't agree with everything I have to say. Every once in a
while, I receive a "Nastygram" as I did last week following the
article about options. Here is what the dear fellow (whose name I
have withheld) had to say
. . . more . . .
Think About Options
I have to say I sometimes get tired of hearing people say how
dangerous option trading is. Of course trading options can be risky,
but what about buying a stock? If you pay $50 a share for a stock,
what is the risk?
. . . more . . .
Trading Education
Last weekend I attended two days of trading seminars at the
OptionsXpress EXPO in Chicago. The event was simply excellent.
Seminars were offered for all levels of traders from the pure neophyte
to the seasoned futures trader. It caused me to pause and reflect how
important basic education and continuing education are to the successful
trader.
. . . more . . .
Where to Place Stops
Last weekend I suggested that it was probably better to use stops
than not for most retail traders. While these orders may yield
imperfect results at times, I remain convinced that their use is
generally much preferred to the alternative of exits by emotion. That
does not mean, however, that I believe that setting stops is easy. It
isn't.
. . . more . . .
Stop Loss Orders or Not
A little over a year ago, I wrote an article entitled "Stop Loss
and Stop Limit Orders." In that piece, I defined the orders and
explained a little about how they each work. As a review, a stop loss
order (to sell) is an order to the broker to sell a specified position
in the event a stock price (or even an option price) hits a certain
level.
. . . more . . .
Keeping It Simple
Last weekend, I wrote about elements I believe help lead to
effective successful trading. Shortly after the article had been sent
out, I received an extremely interesting email from a subscriber.
. . . more . . .
Trading Necessities
This week I was interviewed by TraderInterviews.com concerning some
of my thoughts and approaches to trading. If you are interested, you
can hear the whole interview
. . . more . . .
Technical Trading
Technical trading, generally speaking, means trading where entries
and exits are based on charts or graphs of price movement over time.
The principles can be applied to many areas such as stocks, futures,
indices, foreign exchange or whatever has a price that fluctuates over
time.
. . . more . . .
Diversification and Money Management
How many times have we heard the advice that we need to diversify
our investments? What does that really mean?
. . . more . . .
Know the Subject
In the Article last weekend, I wrote a little about "knowing thyself" in
the trading arena. In my estimation, it is critically important to know what
you really want and expect from your trading. The answer is much more complex
than simply making money.
. . . more . . .
Preparing Your Plan
I recently had the opportunity to sit down with a friend and go over his
investment plan. He had just taken a bath on some spreads during the
whipsawing market conditions and was a little gunshy.
. . . more . . .
Fundamentally Speaking
I often get queries about my approach to fundamentals in choosing a
stock. First, let me say that if there is one fundamental that is head
and shoulders above the others, I believe it to be earnings.
. . . more . . .
Who Is Making Your Decisions?
I need to preface the next few remarks by saying that I really do
like kids. What I have noticed, however, is that in recent years there
seems to be a movement to defer to the judgment of children.
. . . more . . .
How Much Should I Be Making?
In my conversations with retail traders, I find that they have very
high expectations for their returns. I suspect that the expectations
are often unrealistic and can lead to some poor decision making.
. . . more . . .
Buy and Hold
It is a simple truth that we never know what the markets are going
to do on any given day or for that matter over any given week. About
the time we think we know, some event occurs that results in a change of
direction.
. . . more . . .
A Word About Losses
Last weekend, I wrote about the importance of having a plan and in
the article, emphasized the importance of money management and exit
strategy. I just can't say it strongly enough -- money management is
absolutely critical to successful trading. No matter what anyone may
say, some losses are inevitable.
. . . more . . .
Have a Plan
I recently received an e-mail from a subscriber who set out his
plan for money management. In general, he made each trade 10% of his
capital and found that about 60% of his capital was in trades at any
given time. I applaud the subscriber. Not particularly because of the
brilliance of his plan, but because he took the time, made the effort,
and understood the need to have a money management plan. Could he have
chosen a different money management plan?
. . . more . . .
Control
It probably won't come as any astounding revelation, but it can be
important to recognize that we have no control over the market or any
particular stock.
. . . more . . .
Some Advanced Orders
Over the last couple of weeks, I have discussed vacations and some
orders that a trader might consider placing when he is not going to be
looking at the markets. Not all brokers will offer some of the orders I
discuss in these articles, but most of the better internet brokers do
permit their use.
. . . more . . .
Auto-pilot Trading with Protective Puts or Trailing Stops
Last weekend, I wrote a little about what I consider to be the
importance of vacations. In this article, I'll look at some things we
can do about our trading when we do take a vacation. There are a few
choices.
. . . more . . .
Vacations in Trading
As we approach the 4th of July weekend, the subject of vacations
comes to mind. The period from the 4th of July to Labor Day is often
very interesting in the markets. Many of the big players are enjoying
life in the Hamptons or, perhaps, the south of France during that time.
Often the third quarter shows weakness and may see increasing
volatilities as well.
. . . more . . .
I Wish I Could
On Monday, June 11th, I bought stock in Aluminum Corp China (ACH) at
$34.23 a share and by around noon on Friday that week, it had jumped $7.88 a
share. That move represented a 23% increase in just four days. Of course, I
was moving my stop up behind the move in an effort to protect profit yet stay
in the play as long as the stock was climbing. Obviously, this trade made me
very happy and it reminded me of an email I had received from a subscriber
several months ago.
. . . more . . .
What Strategies to Use
As anyone who has been following my articles for some time knows, I am an
advocate of trading education. We work hard to earn our money and we also need
to work hard to learn how to make our money work for us. If we spend the time
it takes to learn how to have our money make money for us, we may create a much
better quality of life for ourselves and our families. Few are willing to take
the time, but for those who do, the rewards can be fantastic.
. . . more . . .
What I Think Doesn't Matter
When it comes to the market or to a specific trade, what I think
does not matter. It probably doesn't matter what you think either.
Just because you or I or an analyst or a network broadcaster thinks the
market or a stock is going to go up doesn't make it so.
. . . more . . .
Whether to Trade Options
A couple of weeks ago, I suggested some questions to ask yourself
to get a better feel for your own trading strengths and weaknesses.
Among the questions were whether you traded options and, if so, why and
if not, why not. Relatively few investors trade options. If you are
among that majority, why don't you trade options?
. . . more . . .
A Hot Tip
While on a commercial flight a week or so ago, I met a man who told
an incredible story. He had asked me about myself and I told him I was
a trader and that my book on stock and options trading was going to be
in the stores in December or January. He replied that he was quite
fortunate and had made a lot of money in real estate and penny stocks.
. . . more . . .
Deciding to Buy a Stock
Last weekend I took a look at some relative risks between a few
simple strategies. The most common strategy for the retail trader
simply is a stock purchase with the belief that it will go up in
price.
. . . more . . .
Evaluating Risk
Last weekend, I posed a number of questions for your review. The
first question asked that you rate a number of strategies from least
risky to riskiest and the second asked whether there is any zero risk
trade. These questions were designed so that you could perform your own
test of risk awareness.
. . . more . . .
Your Trading Knowledge
Now that so many readers have their blood boiling over the last few
articles on the subject of money, I am going to change gears and treat
the subject of trading knowledge. From the many emails I receive, I
know that readers include every category from beginner to professional
trader.
. . . more . . .
Love of Money, the Next Chapter
The last two weeks I wrote articles on money and it has amazed me
the nerves they touched. In response to last weekend's article, I
received the following email.
. . . more . . .
Love of Money
In the opening paragraph of last weekend's Newsletter, I wrote:
"This article looks at the specific subject of money which may be the
root of all evil, but..." I received a miniature firestorm of emails
that corrected my statement to say it isn't money that is the root of
all evil, rather it is the love of money that is the root of all evil.
. . . more . . .
Controlling Your Money
Last weekend I wrote about some of the difficulties encountered
when a trader begins the transition from paper trading to trading with
real money. This article looks at the specific subject of money which
may be the root of all evil, but is certainly the element that
introduces the dangers of emotion when we leave the relative safety of
paper trading and put our cash at risk.
. . . more . . .
Transition from Paper to Real Money Trading
I received a letter to the editor this week that highlights one of
the paramount hurdles a trader must cross before becoming successful.
Here is the letter.
. . . more . . .
Realistic Expectancies
Every once in a while, I receive a communication that reveals what I
consider to be an unrealistic expectancy and I know that many novice and retail
traders do not have realistic expectancies.
. . . more . . .
Reasons to Trade
I have been re-reading Dr. Alexander Elder's "Come Into My Trading Room" (New
York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2002). It, like his other books, is excellent
and informative and is written from the perspective of a psychiatrist/trader who
has been successful in the markets. I have mentioned Dr. Elder and his books
before because they give a different slant from many of the trading works on
the market.
. . . more . . .
More on Brokers
I received more emails after last weekend's article on brokers than in
response to any other article I have written in the last couple of years. Most
of the emails related true horror stories. One reader wrote: "Bling monkies do
better jobs than any broker I know." Generally, the emails related specific
problems, and some offered suggestions.
. . . more . . .
Broker Problems and Solutions
I received an interesting email from a subscriber in response to last
week's article in which I outlined a mistake one of my brokers had made and how
they immediately fixed the problem. The subscriber (I'll call him Fred) did not
have such a satisfying result.
. . . more . . .
Everyone Makes Mistakes
Everyone makes mistakes, but I certainly hate it when I am the
object of the mistake. This past week, I had placed a stop on my
expensive shares of Google (GOOG) with a one triggers other (OTO) order
to buy to close my covered calls on the stock in the event the stop was
hit and the shares of GOOG sold.
. . . more . . .
Cutting Losses
Following my article on "Stops and Whipsaws" last weekend, I
received an interesting email from a subscriber. The reader outlined a
situation where 100 shares of a stock are purchased at $10 a share and a
$10 commission paid.
. . . more . . .
Stops and Whipsaws
During the last week, I received an email from a long time subscriber
asking whether I could write about stop loss orders and whipsaws. Evidently,
he was placing stops regularly and getting stopped out only to see the position
reverse position after he was out and take off.
. . . more . . .
Records and Notes
While keeping records and making notes of your trades can be a real
pain, it is both necessary in many cases and helpful in almost every
situation. When we file our tax returns, for example, trades must be
listed on a D-1 schedule.
. . . more . . .
Exiting Too Late
After many years of trading for my living, and even though I know
better, and even though it bugs me, I sometimes still exit positions too
late. It is really hard to be a successful trader without cutting
losses. The old adage states: "the first loss is the best loss."
. . . more . . .
Commissions Do Play a Role
I am old enough to remember a time when the commission on a hundred
shares of stock could be $150 or $200. In fact, only a couple of years
ago, when teaching a seminar class, an older student in the front row
was livid and essentially accused me of lying when I casually mentioned
that my commission for a thousand share trade was $9.95.
. . . more . . .
Patience
When I was a kid, my mother used to tease me saying: "Patience is a
virtue possess it if you can; often found in women, but never found in
men." Perhaps that is the reason why women often make better traders
than men. Impatience can definitely be the enemy when trading the
market.
. . . more . . .
Some Thoughts on Stops
Since we never know the ultimate results of the trade until it is closed
and since we want to cut losses rationally, it is important to have an
exit in place. One way to attempt to remove the emotion from trading
and establish an exit in the event a play goes against us is to place a
stop loss order.
. . . more . . .
Trading Isn't Playing Football
When I think of my youth and the many pieces of advice I heard related
to playing different sports, I often think how inappropriate they are to
trading. "It ain't over until the fat lady sings." First of all, the
fat lady usually sings at the beginning of the game and almost never at
the end.
. . . more . . .
My Trading Year in Review
As I end my trading for 2006 and look forward to 2007, I thought it
might be appropriate to review how I did in each of the subscription
services I edit.
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Increasing Option Knowledge
I have written several articles about option trading in the past. In
June, for example, I wrote an article about trading call options.
Recently, I have had inquiries about some option positions so I would
like to elaborate a bit in order to help subscribers better understand
the consequences of being in certain option positions.
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Holy Grail
Online Investment Services, LP publishes a number of services including
Option Trader, $10 and Under Trader, and Trend Trader which I edit.
Whenever an alert is sent out notifying subscribers of some trade I have
made or that I am considering, it is accompanied by a disclaimer.
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Learning To Make Money
One of the serious ironies I find is that we live in a society where
there is an emphasis on making money yet our public school system does
little to teach us anything other than how to be employees. I don't
mean to suggest that there is anything wrong with being employed, but I
do believe that having a job, alone, is not a particularly good way to
achieve wealth.
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It's OK to Pay Taxes
We are now entering what is traditionally a time to sell to take
tax losses. I make no pretense of being a tax adviser and urge anyone
who has done a lot of trading to contact their personal tax advisor
before year end to get the best advice possible.
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Santa Claus Rally?
I hope that everyone had a pleasant Thanksgiving holiday. Now we look
forward to the time of the 'Santa Claus rally'. One has to wonder
whether there will be such a rally this year since the markets have been
in pretty high gear since July for the S&P 500 and the Dow and since
August for the NASDAQ.
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Learn Before You Trade Real Money
When I first prepared to give seminars, one of the things I learned
about adult education was that we adults think we know more than we do.
I believe that phenomenon carries over to our trading. I have been a
full time trader for many years now and have devoted a great deal of
time to my own trading education.
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Elections
This article will be a bit of a departure from the usual, but ignoring the election results this past week would be like ignoring a six hundred pound gorilla. The real question is what will happen down the road.
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Buying Long Term Options
Recently in the Option Trader I bought some Jan ’09 LEAPS calls and received a number of questions from subscribers about why I purchased calls with an expiration so far out.
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Knowing Your Broker
Many times, traders choose brokerages based solely on the commissions offered by the firm. They spend little time understanding requirements of the brokerages before signing on. I thought it might be helpful to review some of the brokerage requirements so that traders considering changing brokerages or opening new accounts may know some of the questions that are valuable to ask.
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Investment Clubs and Trading Groups
I must confess that I am not a huge fan of investment clubs and trading groups. I don’t mean to say that these organizations are without value, I only mean to say that in my experience they are not particularly successful.
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Take Care Around Earnings Time
We have again entered the season when earnings are announced. Traditionally the season begins when Alcoa (AA) announces its earnings. This time, Alcoa announced that its earnings were up approximately 86% for the same quarter a year ago. In spite of this apparently favorable information, Alcoa dropped like a stone.
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Strategies
Choosing a strategy is one of the most important things you will do as part of your business plan. There are, of course, many strategies and they include buying a stock, selling a stock short, buying options, selling options, writing covered calls, creating various spreads, and numerous other strategies.
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Mistakes I've Seen
I've been amazed by what I've seen and heard since I began trading
and giving trading seminars. Many students and other traders have been
quite insightful and have made good, intelligent suggestions and have
demonstrated great acumen in their trading. I want to talk about some of
the others today.
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What Should I Study?
Last weekend I wrote about the importance, indeed, the necessity of
education if one is going to be a successful trader. Now I'd like to
touch upon some of the resources available to the person new to
trading.
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How To Improve Your Trading
I gave a two-day basic seminar the last weekend in August and it was
so well received that I thought it might be worth re-emphasizing the need
for traders to expand their knowledge and pursue their trading
education. Don't worry, this isn't a commercial for my seminars.
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A Use of the Call Option to Reduce Risk
On August 26, I wrote a little about stop loss orders and their use
and shortcomings. This weekend, I want to discuss some uses of options
to try to reduce risk. Brokers will tell you and the literature is full
of statements that *options are risky*. Indeed, they can be. How about
buying a stock -- is that risky?
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Stop Loss and Stop Limit Orders
In this article, I'll discuss the stop loss and stop limit orders
as ways to attempt to limit losses. The "stop loss" or "sell stop"
order is an instruction to the broker to sell the stock if it hits a
certain price.
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I Think I Whined Too Much
Last week, I devoted a lot of space to a loss I incurred in a
position that gapped down. No loss makes me happy, but that one was
particularly annoying. Many of you wrote sympathetically and more than
a couple offered trading suggestions. Thank you for the support.
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Lessons From A Loss
Those of you who have observed my trading over some period of time
have probably seen that I have had a fairly high ratio of winning trades
to losing trades, but I wonder how many of you notice that I try to
emphasize that I DO HAVE LOSING TRADES. That's part of the business of
being a trader.
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Entries Are Important, Exits Are Critical
I'm definitely old enough to remember when broker calls (cold or
otherwise) touting a stock were a pretty frequent occurrence. The stock
always would come with a story. It could go something like this: DEF
Corporation has discovered a way to extract gold from gold tailings
outside of old mines.
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Trading Strategies Review
I have written an Article for this Newsletter each weekend over the
past many months. Now, I'd like to indulge in a little review. I
wonder how many of my readers agree that trading is a business and that
most successful businesses have a business plan.
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What's A Put and How Can It Help?
In recent weeks, I've devoted some space to basic information
about calls. I've written a little about buying calls when a trader
thinks a stock is going up and I've written about selling calls against
stock the trader already owns (writing covered calls) and I've discussed
risks of entering those types of trades. This week, I'm going to turn my attention to the definition of put
contracts and one important use that can be made of puts from the put
buyers' perspective.
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Risk Awareness
Following publication of my Article on calls and writing covered
calls, I received a thoughtful and helpful letter from a subscriber.
After thanking me for the article, the subscriber suggested that I may
not have emphasized the risks associated with the covered call strategy
strongly enough. He suggested that the inexperienced trader could "put
the cart before the horse" and just look for calls with high premiums so
he could then buy the stock and write the high priced calls.
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Learning To Trade
I've never met anyone who has read "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" by Robert
Kiyosaki who didn't agree with the premise that in order to become rich
it is necessary to have your assets working for them (unless they
inherited wealth or won the lottery, etc.). Most of us work for a
living and we, ourselves, are the only money producing asset. That is a
very rare way to wealth yet it is what we are taught to do. I recommend
Mr. Kiyosaki's "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" to you. Hopefully it will inspire
you to learn to utilize assets in addition to your own time to produce
wealth for you.
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A Bullish Strategy and a Bearish Strategy Using Calls
This strategy is bullish and is one of the more common uses of call
options. It is known as writing covered calls. In stock lingo
writing means selling. Covered means you own the underlying stock,
and you already know what a call is from last weekend's article.
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A Little About Call Options
While many of our readers only trade stocks, I thought it might be
helpful to write a bit about options, specifically call options. I
often use call options in my Option Trader trades and my own portfolios,
so I thought it might add some clarity if I provide some explanations
of certain basic options strategies.
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What To Do When The Markets Are Falling
The Dow Industrials fell more than 877 points between May 10th and
the close on June 12th; the Nasdaq dropped 279.61 from April 19th to the
June 12th close; the SP-500 fell 90.13 from the high on May 5th to the
June 12th close. As I write this piece on June 13, 2006, the markets are
still in bear mode. What is a trader or investor to do?
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Price and Volume - Bullish or Bearish?
What I'd like to explore here is the value of price and volume (in
chart form) in determining continuation of a trend and potential
reversals.
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Trends and Reversals
Obviously, many factors enter into successful trading. Among those
factors that lead to success are things like having and following a
plan, good money management, learning to cut losses and let profits run,
knowledge of strategies, and patience.
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More About Disciplined Trading
We often hear that the markets trade on fear and greed and that is
doubtlessly true. Rumor has it that amateurs often buy near the top and
sell near the bottom. Why would that be?
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What To Do When The Market Goes Down
Dive! Dive! Dive! As I write this on Friday morning, the markets
have been falling through the week. The Dow industrials, Nasdaq and
SP-500 have each fallen down through the uptrend and the 50 day moving
average.
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Trading the News
This week, the Fed, again, raised interest rates and, of course,
that was big news for the markets. As I write this, the markets are
trying to decide what to do with that news.
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What Kind of Investor Are You?
Were you taught to be a "buy and hold" trader? Exactly what does
that mean? In the classes I give, I always ask: "Buy and hold until
when? Death?" That can work very well for your heirs, but how about
for you?
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Business Plans for Traders and Investors
I teach seminars on stock and option trading and in the basic class,
I always begin with the necessity of having a business plan. Trading
and investing are businesses. We need to treat them that way.
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Trading Do's and Don'ts
Anyone could become a better trader just by becoming or remaining
aware of some simple but important "do's" and "don'ts." Markets trade
on emotion so if we can learn how to play emotion or group psychology
without being ruled by our own emotions, we increase our chances to
become better traders.
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A Focus on Earnings
I really enjoy trading stocks that are $10 and under. Often they
provide the chance to enjoy high percentage gains and, of course, at
worst, the risk is limited to what I paid for the stock.
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Trading $10 and Under Stocks
I really enjoy trading stocks that are $10 and under. Often they
provide the chance to enjoy high percentage gains and, of course, at
worst, the risk is limited to what I paid for the stock.
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Using Subscription Trading Services
In my experiences trading for a living, as editor of stock and
option subscription services, and in classes where I teach budding
traders, I have seen many approaches to trading and to the uses of
subscription services.
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Money Management and Reward to Risk
Unless you're a pure gambler, "betting it all on black" or putting all your trading money into one position definitely isn't the way to
go. Money management can be critical to long term success in stock and
option trading and investing. "Diversify." "Don't put all your eggs in
one basket."
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Trend Trading
"The trend is your friend." Certainly that is one of the many stock
market adages. Generally, I think a saying becomes an adage through
repetition over time. Those sayings don't seem likely to be repeated
unless there is some truth to them. Trend trading as we try to practice
it is a form of momentum trading.
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Option Buying Principles
In my last article, I spoke about the limited risk (limited to the
initial investment) and high leverage attained when buying options.
Those can be fantastic plusses for the option trader. Astounding
returns sometimes can be achieved but that possibility also can lead to
some serious trading mistakes.
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Option Trading
Option trading is often considered to be very risky and it
certainly can be. However, one of the nice things about many option
trades is that the risk is limited and is often much less than the risk
of stock ownership.
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